THE cost of deep cuts in carbon gas emissions proposed by the federal Government's climate change adviser Ross Garnaut is so severe it cannot be reliably predicted by existing computer models.
Economists working for the Treasury and Professor Garnaut, using three sophisticated computer models, have struggled to measure the effect on the economy of a 90 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.
The scale of the cuts mooted by Professor Garnaut in an interim report in February overwhelmed the models and work has been delayed until August, barely a month before Professor Garnaut's final report is due......
However that hasn't stopped the Professor coming up with some predictions anyway, especially it it helps him get approval for some home renovations.
In a bid to build a sustainable second house behind his home in inner-Melbourne Princes Hill, Professor Garnaut has told the City of Yarra Council that global warming will lead to more hailstorms in Melbourne - a claim, it now emerges, at odds with those of leading climate change scientists.Global warming can be so convenient.
In a letter to the council, the economist uses his expertise to argue that heritage traditions, including a slate roof, should not apply to the property when defending what objectors say is an ugly, curving steel roof set to dominate the streetscape at the rear of the property.
He points out the greater resilience of a steel roof over slate given the increasing hailstorm threat. He says he has consulted the insurance industry in the course of his climate change work to back up his argument. But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth assessment report, Climate Change 2007 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - says in chapter 11: "Decreases in hail frequency are simulated for Melbourne and Mt Gambier." It does not back up Professor Garnaut's letter, which says: "Severe and more frequent hailstorms will be a feature of this change.".....