Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Iraq has been won

I have been cautious not to confuse winning with won but its becoming increasingly clear that Coalition forces have won in Iraq. Heres Michael Yon.
So I will be very clear what I mean when I say we have won the war. A counterinsurgency is won when the government's legitimacy is no longer threatened by the insurgents, the government is able to protect its own people and the people are participating in the government. In Iraq, all three conditions apply....
And yesterday there was this report:

INTELLIGENCE assessments showing al-Qa'ida was changing its focus from Iraq to Pakistan and Afghanistan were highlighted yesterday by US commander David Petraeus as leaders in Islamabad called a crisis meeting over the jihadi militancy sweeping the country.

General Petraeus said that after intense US assaults in Iraq, al-Qa'ida was looking to shift focus to its original home base in Afghanistan, where American casualties are running higher than in Iraq. "We do think that there is some assessment ongoing as to the continued viability of al-Qa'ida's fight in Iraq," General Petraeus said.....
Good news indeed. The Islamist went to Iraq believing they could terrorize the Iraqi people into preventing an effective government forming and that the American would give up and go home if enough GIs died. Neither happened. Its Al-Qa'da thats retreated all the way to Afghanistan.

So we can expect to see more activity there in the following months. General Petraeus, the man behind the successful Iraqi surge, will soon be commander of American operation in Afghanistan. Joel Fitzgibbon our Defense Minister thinks a surge of troops is also required in Afghanistan. Will he send in more Aussie troops if asked? Or is he just talk?

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